The Best Thing That Ever Happened Was Losing

Ottawa has been in a sprint since January. A new Prime Minister. A new cabinet. A new agenda. Now, the House has adjourned for the summer. The BBQ circuit begins. Vacations will be taken. And whether they admit it or not, many will use the time to catch their breath and reflect.

They should.

Because in politics, everyone wants to talk about winning. But the people I have learned the most from are the ones who lost and stuck around.

For Liberals, the most important moment of the past 25 years was not a victory. It was the 2011 election.

We lost. Badly.

And it changed everything.

Losing is humbling. The phones stop ringing. The invites dry up. In 2011, we went from government-in-waiting to national punchline in a very short period. It was jarring. But it was also clarifying.

Losing forces you to confront questions that winning lets you ignore. What did we miss? What did we get wrong? Who were we actually speaking to, and who did we forget?

I can assure you that in Liberal circles, the level of introspection that occurred after 2011 eclipsed anything seen after the 2019 or 2021 elections.

None of those questions would have been asked if we had won. We would have kept moving in the same direction, convinced our way was the right way simply because it worked. Past losses were never our fault. It was the media, the opposition, the voters. No need for accountability. But 2011 was rock bottom. It forced us to face reality.

Losing gives you time. And if you take that time seriously, it gives you perspective.

The 2011 loss triggered a long period of reflection for many Liberals. Some learned the right lessons. Some did not. But for most, it was a turning point. It was a moment to rediscover the value of strategic patience, humility, and adaptation. Not just as tactics, but as principles.

And while 2011 may have been the breaking point, I will never forget how humbling the 2006 election loss was either. I was the most junior of staffers at the time, barely a footnote on the campaign org chart. But even from that vantage point, I could see how deeply the loss shook people. Senior staff who just weeks earlier had been at the centre of power were suddenly out of government. Some were stunned. Some were angry. But the ones with the best sense of humour handled it with grace. I still remember hearing one of them, in mock outrage, say, "Don’t you know who I used to be?" It became a popular joke among the Liberal has-beens of 2006 to 2010.

It was funny. And it was true.

Politics is humbling. And losing will humble you faster than anything else.

Which brings us to the 2025 election.

The Liberals just survived a near death experience. It was close. Closer than many want to admit. And now we are left with the question. Will that brush with defeat be enough?

Will it lead to real introspection? Or will we see a return to the old habits of complacency, centralization, and smugness?

Early signs point to a reset. New voices are stepping forward. The tone has shifted. For what it is worth, the Liberals seem to have gotten the memo. If you want to win in this country, you need to build a new centrist voter coalition. Their near death experience this past winter appears to have been sobering, and it forced a change. Time will tell if it is lasting or just another temporary shift.

And what about the Conservatives?

They have some serious reflecting to do. I know there are voices in that party who will push back on that. They got over 40 percent of the vote. They increased their seat count. Is that not proof something worked?

No. It is not.

Because in the moment that mattered most, when everything broke their way, when the government was at its weakest, when the wind was at their back, they still could not close.

So go ahead. Blame Trump. Keep chasing the same formula. Keep telling yourselves the message is landing. Learn no lessons. The most partisan of Liberals will love you for it.

Or ask the harder questions. Why didn’t you break through in the places you needed to? Why do voters who say they want change hesitate to vote for you at the ballot box? What’s holding you back?

There are moments in politics when everything collapses: your strategy, your certainty, your story. These valley moments do not come by choice. But what defines a party, or a person, is what they do next.

So what will the Conservatives do next? What version of the Conservative Party will we see in September?

After the 2011 election loss, the Liberals looked to Wilfrid Laurier for inspiration. Perhaps Conservatives should look to their founding leader for a similar example.

I mean Sir John A, not Harper. Richard Gwynn’s biography of Sir John A. Macdonald makes the case that his true political gift was not just founding the country. It was holding it together. Macdonald understood something that still holds. You do not govern Canada from the fringes. You govern it by building a coalition that reflects the country’s complexity. That means regional balance. That means some compromise. And yes, that means embracing the political centre.

You do not have to abandon your principles to do that. But you do have to widen the circle. Mark Carney is doing it now and is being rewarded for it. The Liberals enjoy a double-digit lead over the Conservatives today. A complete reversal of where they stood a year ago.

The question now for both parties is whether they will actually walk through the valley. Or will they simply redecorate the tent at the top.

The truth is that every party, every leader, and every operative wins by learning how to lose well.

The loss isn’t the end. It’s the beginning of who you decide to become next.