Making the Political Case for Increased Defence Spending in an Uncertain World
It’s 2025, three years into the Ukraine conflict. and Russia, emboldened by its military achievements, perhaps emboldened by a politically distracted NATO Alliance, targets Latvia, where Canadian troops are deployed. Concurrently, a Russian submarine in the Arctic launches attacks on critical North American infrastructure, effectively hindering our response capabilities. Swiftly, Russia achieves its objectives in Latvia.
This scenario is not a script of a Hollywood thriller; it is what keeps the people at NORAD up at night. Currently, our defence capabilities are inadequately equipped to counter such threats. Without a clear political imperative, significant improvements to our defence capabilities remain unlikely.
Experts have clearly outlined the policy rationale for urgently needed new submarines and additional Air Force investments, particularly for NORAD modernization. Current climate threats and rising geopolitical tensions demand Canada move beyond merely monitoring our northern approaches. We need to be able to respond in the Arctic.
Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia launched a series of cyber-attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. In the early days of the conflict, they targeted power plants and railways. This approach, known as SODCIT (Strategic Operations to Destroy Critical Infrastructure), is designed to create an operational advantage by crippling an adversary before they can respond. This doctrine is being adopted by our adversaries around the world. It is already happening, we just have not come to grips with reality.
Global security has deteriorated, with conflicts in Israel, a naval blockade in the Red Sea, China’s posturing over Taiwan, and foreign interference here at home. The world is less secure than it was a decade ago.
In World War 2, the Allies' entire economies were mobilized to counter fascism. Politicians responded because there was a clear and compelling political imperative. Years before D-Day, shipyards and factories across North America built up the armed forces. Today, any conflict would be a 'come-as-you-are' affair, leaving no time for gradual military buildup. Our best hope to be prepared for a future conflict is to start making these investments now.
Despite the evident danger, the prospect of Canada adequately preparing for such threats seems unlikely. The high costs associated with military procurement present a challenge for any Liberal or Conservative government. Without public pressure, our politicians will not be motivated to act.
Defence spending discussions have long been confined to Ottawa’s defence circles. Unfortunately, most Canadians, especially in our major cities, are unaware of the threats our country faces. As such, the focus of our politicians often mirrors the concerns of the majority of Canadians. If the average Canadian remains uninformed and therefore unconcerned about national defence, it is unlikely and frankly unreasonable to expect our political leaders to think differently, to be motivated to act.
This apparent indifference, stems more from a lack of awareness than apathy. It's reminiscent of the early days of climate change awareness when warnings from scientists and experts took years to gain traction with the public. Eventually a compelling narrative resonated with the general public and our politicians responded accordingly.
To build a compelling case for increased defence spending, the government and the Canadian Armed Forces need to take proactive steps to inform and educate the public. This could involve declassifying and disseminating certain intelligence in an accessible manner, easily understandable to the average citizen. Clear explanations of threats and defence for both economic and security purposes could bridge the gap between government, experts, and the public. By bringing these issues into the public domain, we can demonstrate the necessity of prioritizing defence spending. If Canadians don’t know the importance of this investment, they won’t pressure politicians to feel the same.
The urgency to revamp Canada's defence capabilities cannot be overstated. New threats are emerging that challenge our traditional understanding of national security. It's no longer a question of if, but when these threats directly impact Canada.
As a country, we must pivot from a reactive stance to a proactive one. Until Canadians are given the full facts and reasons to act, the imperative will remain known only to a few.